Assessment Paper: The Strategic Implications of the U.S.-Israeli War Against Iran for Iraqi Statehood

Since February 28, 2026, the regional order in the Middle East has been undergoing a highly perilous and complex structural shift, triggered by the outbreak of a direct, full-scale military confrontation pitting the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

This confrontation, codenamed Operation "Epic Fury", transcended the bounds of traditional shadow wars or conventional escalatory rounds governed by decades-old rules of engagement. Instead, it marked a complete collapse of those rules and a shattering of historical deterrence barriers, particularly as strikes reached the apex of Iran's spiritual and political leadership with the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamena'ei and the assumption of power by his son, Mujtaba Khamena'ei, in the heat of battle.

Iraq currently finds itself at the epicenter of this geopolitical storm, as security, political, economic, and societal fault lines converge on its territory, rendering it the theater most exposed to these regional repercussions. Tailored specifically for Iraqi political and security decision-makers under the auspices of Al-Nabaa Forum for Dialogue, this comprehensive policy paper seeks to dissect the current landscape with rigor and impartiality, grounded in the Forum’s commitment to fostering civil peace, consolidating national stability, and advancing institutional statehood free of acute polarization.