Under the Slogan "Britain for the British": The Brexit Referendum and Its Global and Iraqi Implications
Under the banner of "returning Britain to the British," the United Kingdom's decision to withdraw from the European Union was made through a successful public referendum, a vote that may well inaugurate an effective mechanism for untangling complex international and domestic entanglements.
The precursors to this exit began brewing within British society the moment Prime Minister David Cameron made an uncalculated pledge regarding a referendum on Britain's EU membership should the Conservative Party win the 2015 general election. This commitment coincided with a rising political trend championed by an influential wing of the Conservative Party that advocated separation from the European bloc.
Furthermore, the roots of this decision date back to Britain’s initial accession to the European Union, an entry marked by hesitation and a lack of full conviction, so much so that Britain was frequently labeled the "difficult member" that demanded numerous conditions and exemptions. It appears that this reluctant accession carried within it the seeds of its eventual departure. Britain had joined the Union only after securing several key privileges:
Currency Autonomy: EU approval allowing Britain to retain its national currency alongside the Euro, rather than adopting the Euro as the sole currency.
Political Integration Limits: Exemption from any obligation toward deeper European political integration beyond the existing status quo.
Welfare Restrictions: Restrictions on EU migrants' access to social welfare benefits during their first four years of residence.
Legislative Veto Power: Granting national parliaments the right to object to legislation issued by the European Commission in Brussels.
Overall, this decision caused widespread political debate regarding its underlying causes, intellectual and political justifications, and international repercussions, despite its obvious economic motives. Perhaps the most prominent driver lies in British nationalism, which felt increasingly threatened by EU migration policies. The European Union's balancing philosophy, attempting to preserve the national identities of member states while maintaining a shared overarching framework, failed to curb the British nationalist sentiment that played a decisive role in driving Brexit. The goal was to halt foreign immigration to Britain, a phenomenon that began impacting the conservative national identity of British society, an identity rooted in an imperial legacy that leans toward dominance and leadership rather than integration.
Stopping this flow of immigration was impossible as long as EU migration laws and economic regulations regarding foreign migrants remained binding within the UK. Notably, the foreign-born population in Britain had grown significantly, rising from 3.8 million to 8.3 million. EU law mandated that Britain keep its borders open to migrants from other European countries, posing a direct challenge to British national identity.
Furthermore, the economic utility model adopted by the EU since its inception, where member states ceded portions of their sovereignty in exchange for economic gains, proved insufficient to dampen the rise of British nationalism.
The British Referendum and the International Order
The Brexit vote exceeded its local and regional dimensions, serving as a fundamental entry point in reshaping the contours of the new international order and pointing toward a new scenario in global power alliances, based on the following indicators:
Reinforcing Unipolarity: The withdrawal bolstered unipolarity in the international system by fracturing one of its key competing international powers, the European Union. This may mark the beginning of the unraveling of the EU and a return of the European continent to a pre-World War II dynamic, particularly if far-right political parties gain further ground.
Realignment of Major Powers: The decision may lead to a reorganization of major powers and their spheres of influence in international politics. Germany may see its influence expanded, with a heightened opportunity to secure a permanent seat on the UN Security Council following the British exit. Additionally, it offers channels to strengthen the Sino-Russian political alliance.
Potential Disintegration of the UK: Analysts point to the growing possibility of the breakup of the United Kingdom, comprising England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, in the wake of Brexit. Such a scenario would diminish Britain's role in global affairs. Repercussions began immediately after the vote: the majority of Scotland’s population favored remaining in the EU, leading the First Minister to declare that Scotland sees its future within the European bloc. In Northern Ireland, the pro-EU Sinn Féin party called for a referendum on a "United Ireland."
Domino Effect Across Europe: The British decision may prove to be more than an isolated withdrawal; it could trigger a chain of referendums in other European nations. Anti-immigrant, right-wing movements in France, Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands are pushing strongly in a similar direction, driven by comparable domestic conditions and shared anti-immigrant political platforms.
Future UK-EU Relations: Despite the break, relations between Britain and the EU are likely to remain cordial. Future ties may be structured around the European Economic Area (EEA) model similar to Norway, bilateral agreements akin to Switzerland, or a tailored, bespoke framework designed specifically for Britain.
Repercussions on the Arab World and Iraq: This striking British move is likely to resonate across several Arab nations, including Iraq, the Gulf states, and Palestine. Some observers believe it will catalyze the push for an independence referendum in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, while others argue there is no direct linkage between the British and Iraqi cases. While the Iraqi context differs substantially and the subject matter of the referendums varies, the takeaway lies in adopting the referendum as a mechanism for decoupling incompatible social components. This exemplifies how the world was influenced by US President Woodrow Wilson’s 14 Points in 1918, specifically the principle of self-determination, which laid the groundwork for the establishment of numerous nation-states previously under foreign occupation. In an interconnected world shaped by telecommunications and globalization, events in one region inevitably leave an imprint on others.
Consequently, the British referendum is expected to accelerate the drive toward a referendum in the Kurdistan Region and potentially beyond, especially if the United Kingdom undergoes internal fragmentation or if the European Union faces further disintegration.
Several negative internal indicators within Iraq suggest that a referendum could be adopted as an exit strategy for the country's social and sectarian challenges:
Growing Social Divergence: Iraq's social components are increasingly drifting apart due to flawed policies, sterile governance mechanisms, and conflicting economic and security calculations.
Entrenched Retaliatory Mindsets: Key political forces remain bound to a revanchist mentality that fosters friction rather than cohesion, operating through ineffective governance structures incapable of producing success. Consequently, they are unable to emulate South Africa’s national reconciliation model or Colombia’s framework that ended over 50 years of bloody conflict.
Favorable International Climate: The post-Brexit international climate will lean more toward accepting referendums as a means to decouple conflicting states and social groups.
Historical Reversals in State Structures: This international trend is reinforced by historical shifts: unifying states that were partitioned during the British era (such as unified Germany) and partitioning states that were unified under British influence (such as Sudan). The unified Iraqi state established in 1921 was a primary achievement of the British era under a bipolar global system. Consequently, it stands as one of the most vulnerable state structures in the unipolar international order following the British referendum.
*Professor of Political Science at the University of Baghdad and Associate Researcher at Al-Nabaa Forum for Dialogue